If we go back one thousand years, to 1013, and ask the
question, “Why is the world different now
from how it was then?” then we might cite military campaigns, political
revolutions, evolving economic models or advances in technology. We might highlight
the influence of key individuals: explorers, inventors, thinkers,
industrialists and scientists. The common factor that underlies the world’s
progression from medieval life in 1013 to life in the modern world is discovery.
Scientific breakthroughs are a disproportionately impactful
subtype of discovery. Our understanding of phenomena like chemistry, molecules,
DNA, vaccines, neurons, electricity, electromagnetism, the movement of planets,
quantum mechanics, global warming or even cryptography were founded on ‘eureka’
moments. Scientists synthesize how they think phenomena work into concrete
experimental or theoretical investigations that gave new predictive insight
into what was actually going on. Developing breakthroughs of this kind require
a combination of creativity and careful, rigorous scientific work that are the
hallmark of exceptional talented practitioners. As yet, the only effective way
to develop scientific discoveries is to find and train exceptional people, to
provide them with laboratories and analysis tools, to foster their
intercommunication and competition and try to pick out significant findings as
they occur.
On Dec 23rd 1999, the Economist magazine published a review of the most important inventions of the last thousand years. Notably,
they chose Gutenberg’s printing press as the most influential invention over that period. This machine allowed the generation, reproduction and dissemination of
knowledge on an industrial scale. It toppled governments. It educated the
masses. It revolutionized trade. Similarly, the invention and rapid
development of electronic information technology over the last 70 years provides
us with an astonishing array of computational tools that that have so far
transformed the way we work, live, socialize, think and play. This technology allows us to use information easily and powerfully in ways hitherto unimagined a few short years ago.
Although informatics tools certainly facilitates science, the act of discovery itself still
remains somewhat ephemeral and mysterious. The underlying synthesis of
knowledge required to execute such discoveries remains hidden in the minds of a
small number of experts. Perhaps we can develop knowledge engineering
methodologies and techniques to understand, reproduce and automate the
information-driven processes of scientific understanding and discovery. Perhaps,
we can build machines that make advanced scientific reasoning as easy for
people as reading and writing had become in the years after Gutenberg’s
printing press.
In this blog, I will ask the question, “What will it take to develop a breakthrough machine?” and attempt
to come up with some answers based on my group’s efforts as well as reviewing other
work being done in the field. This blog is also intended to act as a challenge
and an invitation to the community to discuss, argue and contribute to the
discussion.
